Off Topic Friday

12
Dec

C’mon. Let’s all take a minute to catch our breath. There’s way too much hyperventilating going on.

I myself have been torn through this process. My day job is tied directly to the automotive industry, and although my background and attitudes are firmly on the side of free-market laissez-faire economics, a part of me has secretly been pulling for the loan package to be approved. Because it would be easier.

Because it would be easier.

If ever there was something that explained society today in the US it’s that. We want ease. We want simple. We want Judge-Judy type scenarios where everything gets decided pretty neatly for us in a half hour.

We don’t want long and difficult transitions. And we certainly don’t want pain.

But with Ron Gettlefinger’s inexplicable decision yesterday to reject the notion of any more concessions – kind of like a man on the deck of the sinking titanic thinking that he is still in control of his destiny – all we have left to look forward to is a difficult transition. And probably lots of pain.

But now that the notion of a loan package looks like it’s dead, and with it the “easy way out”. Can we finally talk turkey? Can we take the gloves off and talk truth and not hyperbole?

Good.

And truth is this – that bankruptcy IS the way to ensure the survival of this industry into the future. Period. Let’s face it – the bridge loan packages were simply stopgap measures to buy them more time to restructure. But these companies need a massive restructuring focused on slashing hourly labor and retiree costs though, and the ONLY way to do that is through a bankruptcy action.

You need look no further than the UAW’s action yesterday to see why bankruptcy is necessary. After all these years the UAW still doesn’t get it. And because of that I don’t believe for one second that any restructuring action without bankruptcy would have been successful. And so while the bridge loan scenario would have been easy, it would also have started the final death spiral for the manufacturers, and probably for this area.

So now that it looks like we’re heading down that path, can we stop all the chicken-little talk about nobody buying from a bankrupt company? It made for a nice, visible, and dramatic argument when we were looking for the easy way out. But the fact is, it’s simply not true.

In fact, I propose that we stop talking about bankruptcy completely. It’s unproductive. And it sends the wrong message.

All of us in this area have a huge vested interest in this RESTRUCTURING of the automotive industry. And through this RESTRUCTURING this area will bounce back stronger than before. We have always bounced back. And I’m confident that we will again this time.

And I’m putting my money where my mouth is – I’m closing on the purchase of another investment property this afternoon, and I have three more that I’m looking at.

So let’s use all of our considerable communication powers and channels to talk about all the great things that are going to come out of this RESTRUCTURING. The pain is now going to happen no matter what.

It’s up to us to choose how to react to it.

Category : Off Topic Friday | Blog
7
Nov

I have taken the plunge and signed up for a speaking slot at the first Michigan Podcamp that will be held tomorrow, November 8 in Southfield.

I’ll be speaking from 1:45 – 2:00. It’ll be a quick 15 minutes on one of my favorite topics.

Twitter for Small Business Owners – Lessons Learned and Profits Earned

I laughed hysterically at the concept of Twitter when Mark Ijlal first introduced it to me.  I’m not laughing anymore. Find out why tomorrow at 1:45pm.

And don’t miss the spectacular line up speakers that are lined up for tomorrow. This is an event NOT to miss:

Rosh Sillars will be speaking on Photography for Bloggers and Social Media

Tim Robertson, publisher of MyMac.com will be speaking on how to effectively interview, get the people to show up, and the different types of technology to use.

Jermiah Staes of Portage Media Solutions will be talking on Podcasting and Blogging as cornerstones of your total social media strategy.

Charlie Wolborg and Terry Bean - Attract, Act & Achieve: A Superhero’s Guide to Success – Flame your passion, build your brand and grow your business using social media and social networks

Hajj Flemings author of The Brand YU Life, founder of Brand Camp University, will talk about the importance of your personal brand.

Mike Pfeiffer, host of Most People Are DJ’s podcast will speak on  how to capture satisfaction from podcasting.

Shannon Paul of Red Wings will speak on the value of participation in building your network through social media.

And others . . . . .

Find out more at http://PodcampMichigan.org 

 

Category : Off Topic Friday | Blog
10
Oct

I saw an interesting discussion on twitter last evening. As you might expect, there has been some serious discussion about the economy and the stock market (which are two DIFFERENT things BTW).

As you may know, twitter is heavily populated by “Web 2.0″ types that know far more about social media and the internet that I do (or maybe than I ever will). They’re in lots of different fields, and many are actually (gasp!) using twitter and social media as a way to make money or at least  promote their cause to make money. I know, I know, the thought of actually making money when so many are suffering is scandalous.

In particular a pair of posts on the subject of the economy by someone that should know better stood out to me. He said:

“When wealthy invest in growth – GREAT! When wealthy buy up assets at rock-bottom prices cuz they’re the only ones who can: AWFUL!”

“Wealth doesn’t get destroyed in a depression — it just moves around. And by around, I mean “up”.”

I was very surprised to read these posts. I wasn’t surprised to see them on twitter, because the mush-brain socialist crowd is disproportionately represented there, but I was surprised to read it coming from that particular person because both statements show a fundamental lack of understanding of basic economics. Especially in this “internet age”, and especially when written by someone that’s using social media as a promotional tool.

Statement #1 is just bizarre – isn’t buying something low so you can at some point in the future sell it “high” one of the most basic fundamental tenets of the free market and capitalism? I think so – in fact my entire real estate business is predicated on that ONE idea. My client at work – the one that makes cars – thinks so. Starbucks, where I bought my coffee this morning thinks so. And the guy that owns the car wash that I went to yesterday thinks so.

In fact the ONLY way that a business can make a profit is to buy or create something and then sell it for MORE than it cost to make it. That’s the definition of profit. And that’s the definition of business.

And the bit about the “wealthy” being the only ones that can is a bunch of class warfare garbage. The fact is, over the last three years two things were widely available: 

  1. ANYONE with a pulse could have easily built up a “portfolio” of unsecured business credit that amounted to hundreds of thousands of dollars (ask me how I know). I’m sure even the most ardent socialist would agree with me that that kind of capital opens lots of doors, and
  2. ANYONE with a pulse could have bought investment real estate (aka “productive assets”) at rock bottom prices, and could now be reaping the benefits.

And statement #2 that wealth just moves up is – well – misguided. I was going to say silly but I’m stretching here to be as charitable as possible.

The truth is that wealth moves around all the time. Up down, and sideways. The people that produce know this in spades – they take calculated risks, and when the risks pay off then their wealth increases. When the risks fail their wealth decreases. That’s the nature of the beast.

Wealth doesn’t just float around in the ether waiting for a Vanderbilt or Rockefeller to come along. That’s hogwash. This economy both rewards and punishes risk taking (at least it USED to punish it).

So that even in a depression, wealth moves to the people that GO OUT AND GET IT.

The socialists and liberals would have us believe that there is an unequal access to opportunity in this country. I’m telling you that that’s a bunch of BS.

Because this is not about the Haves and Have-Nots.

Far from it.

It’s about the Will and Will-Nots.

When you understand the difference you can be successful in this country. Not before.

Category : Off Topic Friday | Blog
26
Sep

The Wall Street Journal this week highlighted a problem that’s only getting worse as the financial sector melts down. 

Baby Boomers Delay Retirement

Declines in Assets Force a Generation to Face New Reality

By KELLY GREENE

Nancy Davis, a 59-year-old senior marketing manager for a law firm in San Diego, had hoped to ease into her retirement after her son finishes college in two years.

But “I may be 70 before I retire at this point,” she said Friday, after watching the markets take their toll on her 401(k). “It’s very unnerving.”

For millions of Americans approaching retirement, events of recent weeks are delivering a clear message: Not so fast. With nest eggs shrinking, housing prices still falling and anxieties about their financial future growing, the oldest members of the baby-boom generation are putting the brakes on plans to leave the office.

“We’ll see more and more people postpone” their retirement dates, says Helga Cuthbert, a certified financial planner in Decatur, Ga., who spent a good part of last week fielding telephone calls from nervous investors. “Their expectations about the future and the kinds of returns they would get were simply unrealistic.”

As discouraging as that message might sound, it’s exactly what many baby boomers need to hear, according to financial planners and researchers. Most people underestimate how much money they will need for retirements that could easily last two or three decades, and are leaving the work force with nest eggs that are likely to expire long before they do.

Consider: Less than one-quarter of workers age 55 and older — just 23% — have savings and investments totaling $250,000 or more, according to a study published in April by the Employee Benefit Research Institute in Washington. About 60% have less than $100,000. The average retirement age in the U.S. is 63 — but most investors don’t recognize the benefits from working even just two or three additional years, financial advisers say. According to research from T. Rowe Price, the Baltimore-based mutual-funds company, a 62-year-old with a $100,000 salary and a $500,000 nest egg will see his annual retirement income from investments and Social Security rise by 6% for every additional year he remains in the work force.

Working longer “gives people time to build up their 401(k) balance, can result in a bigger benefit from Social Security, and reduces the amount of time people will have to depend on their savings,” says Alicia Munnell, director of the Center for Retirement Research at Boston College and author of a recent book about the value of extending time in the work force. “The arguments in favor of working longer are overwhelming. We just need to convince people.”

Even before events of the past two weeks, some older adults had begun adjusting their sights. In a survey published in May, 27% of surveyed workers age 45-plus said the economic slowdown had prompted them to postpone plans to retire, according to AARP, the Washington-based advocacy group.

John Dougherty is among them. “Two weeks ago, it was frustrating; last week it was scary,” says Mr. Dougherty, a mortgage broker in Raleigh, N.C. who estimates that his nest egg has lost 20% of its value in the past 18 months. He had planned to retire at age 62 — but now, like Ms. Davis, he says 70 might be a more realistic target.

“Time will tell if my physical capabilities will allow me to continue to work that long,” he added.

Patrick Hayes, a 58-year-old physician in Columbus, Ohio, was hoping to retire in two years. “But I’m watching my funds getting smaller and smaller, and I keep hearing this is the worst thing since the Depression,” he says. “It’s particularly tough if the market gets hit in your early years of retirement. If you’re about to retire and something like this happens, maybe you should stay working.

“What I don’t want to do is take 10 years off, be 70 years old — and have to go back to work if I’ve lost my technical skills,” he added.

That story — retirees returning to work — is also being played out in the wake of the market turmoil. At RetirementJobs.com, an online job search provider, “the volume of visitor traffic to our online résumé writing service doubled in the past week,” says Tim Driver, chief executive officer. “The common motivation we’ve heard from these people is that they need to go back to work due to the economy.”

Jack Pogalz, a 63-year-old project manager in Cottage Grove, Minn., was laid off last year from a medical-device maker and has been looking for part-time work as a grant writer in the nonprofit sector. But he recently shifted his job search to full-time employment after realizing that his 401(k) has dropped 16% since December. “That translates into about four years of income” in retirement, he says. “It’s either get back into the work force or retirement’s going to be cut that much shorter.”

So far, he has had a number of interviews but no offers. “The age thing I think is hurting a little bit,” he says. “With the job market increasingly getting tighter, I think it’s going to get more difficult.”

Even retirees who have been prudent with their nest eggs say they’re facing tough times — and tough decisions. “We weren’t extravagant people. We didn’t go on cruises. We didn’t buy a Cadillac. And here we are, we thought we could retire, but our savings are just going too fast for us,” says Noreen Hilinski, a 67-year-old retiree in Madison, Conn. Her financial planner told her recently that she and her husband, a 69-year-old retired engineer, have used about 10% of their investments.

That news has her considering asking the catalog-company where she used to work to let her come back for the holiday season. Her husband is looking for odd jobs, perhaps in a hardware store, she says.

“There’s a lot of people who are going to go back to work in my age bracket,” Ms. Hilinski says. “More and more of my friends are talking about going back to work.”

Jack Wolfe, a 64-year-old retiree from a natural-gas-pipeline company, moved to a lake between Houston and Dallas last year. Now, he’s trying to go back to work, “and the closest we are to anything is 60 or 70 miles,” he says. “I’m probably going to have to go to work for a few months at a time. What I’d really like to do is inspection work on new pipelines.”

After nearly a decade in retirement, “I’m trying to go back to work and let our portfolio build back up,” he explained. “We’ve lost such a big amount of money lately, we’re going to get to the point where we can’t recover.”

He and his wife, also retired from the same company, lost about half their savings after Sept. 11, 2001, he says. “We were building it back up really slow. Then this thing hit, and it put the nail in the coffin.”

There is an alternative that will help you salvage retirement savings. Visit Great Lakes Investment Fund to learn more.

Category : Off Topic Friday | Blog
19
Sep

The meme bug is sweeping the real estate blogging world again. 

@ToddWaller tagged me a couple of days ago to reveal potentially embarrassing facts, after he had supposedly done so himself. I didn’t see any embarassing things on his list, but there were a bunch of interesting things that I learned about him. So in the spirit of TMI and full disclosure, here are a few mildily interesting things about me that very few people actually know:

  1. I ran for a seat in the California state house representatives in 1990. As a rookie I smoked a sitting city council member in their own city, but ultimately lost in the outlying area of my district because I didn’t have the resources to campaign there.
  2. I was admitted directly from high school into the Electrical Engineering program at the University of Michigan. I started strong with a D average in my first semester, then managed to talk my way from semester to semester without any real improvement. After three years of that they finally threw me out. 
  3. I took a two year break from college and worked at a casino as a blackjack dealer in Lake Tahoe, Nevada. Along the way I met a shocking number of 21 dealers that had quit college and done the same thing – and never left. They were 45 years old and still there dealing cards. That was enough of a wake-up call to convince me to high-tail it back here to finish college.
  4. I met my wife during the second day of grad school orientation at USC. We were engaged in six weeks and got married a year later. That was 18 years ago.
  5. I graduated from USC in 1992 with an MBA with a concentration in finance, and I was one of only two graduates in the my entire MBA program that year to land a much-sought-after investment banking job upon graduation.
  6. I’ve had 12 jobs since graduating from undergraduate school. The shortest was the Investment Banking job in #5, which lasted all of 13 months before the company went under (not my fault - I SWEAR). The longest was 3.5 years at the “old” Hewlett-Packard in Silicon Valley, when Bill and Dave were still alive. I suppose that you could say that when it comes to jobs I have a short attention span.

And I’m sure that’s far more than you ever wanted to know about me. 

So – now it’s my turn to tag a few others to do the same.

Let’s keep things reasonably local:

@12thnight

@MDU1109

@digitalvision

@MichaelBeaton

@primesuspect

@llaurentsmith

It’s your turn to tell everyone a few interesting things about you.

For those following along, hit Twitter and add these folks to your Following list.  There are pearls of wisdom and the wit of kings & queens to be found amongst these folks.  Of course, there’s a lot of stuff out there where you might need a shovel……

Here are the ground rules if you would like to keep this chain letter meme going:

The rules to play are easy …
1. Link to the person who tagged you.
2. Post the rules on the blog.
3. Write six random things about yourself.
4. Tag six people at the end of your post.
5. Let each person know they have been tagged.
6. Let the tagger know when your entry is up.

Category : Off Topic Friday | Blog